Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
